基于组合预测模型的我国能源需求预测分析

本文根据预测理论,结合我国历年能源消费的相关数据,分别采用多元线性回归方法、灰色预测、指数模型方法建立我国能源需求的单项预测模型,并对各单项模型的结果进行分析比较和检验,然后采用误差平方和最小法进行权重分配,建立了我国未来能源需求量的组合预测模型,最后,应用该模型对我国未来10年的能源需求量进行预测,结果表明：组合预测的精度要远远优于单项预测;我国未来10年的能源需求仍呈现较快的增长趋势。     

外汇市场、股票市场及预期退货膨胀对货币需求的影响

本文利用2005年7月到2012年12月的月度数据,使用菲利普斯-奥肯曲线计算预期通货膨胀率,将汇率、股票市场以及预期通货膨胀率纳入货币需求函数模型,通过协整检验、VEC模型以及VAR模型,研究了汇率、股市以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响,结果发现汇率、股市收益率以及通胀预期对实际货币需求的影响具有统计显著性,但是影响程度很小。     

The Stability of the Demand for Money in Monetary Unions: Some Empirical Evidence from WAEMU

Previous studies of the stability of the demand for money have been largely conducted in the context of individual countries. To the extent that these countries have control over their monetary policies, such an approach is well justified. However, for monetary unions, where the control over monetary policy is usually vested in a central or outside authority, it is more appropriate to examine the stability of the money demand for the union as a collective entity. This paper follows this approach with respect to a West African monetary union, the WAEMU, whose monetary policies are largely dictated by the French authorities. Using cointegration theory and CUSUM stability tests, we find evidence that the demand for broad money is stable in this union. Given the empirical results, the paper draws inferences regarding their implications for the formulation of optimal monetary policy for the WAEMU.     

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

ABSTRACT

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.     

农村宅基地流转中存在的问题与完善对策——以攸县农村宅基地流转的实地调查为例

通过结合攸县农村宅基地流转的相关调查与实际概况分析,宅基地流转方式分为出租、出售、征地置换三种。由于农村宅基地流转具有特殊性,使农村宅基地流转中存在许多问题,如流转缺乏合理的资源配置,缺乏合乎需求的法律支撑,缺乏明确的法律途径纠纷解决机制,流转缺乏灵活的宅基地利用方式以及切实可行的管理体制等。因此,必须以＂地尽其用＂作为基本出发点和总体思路,完善我国农村宅基地的流转法律制度。     

The Challenge of Obtaining Quality Care: Limited Consumer Sovereignty in Human Services

Abstract

This paper offers a conceptual analysis of the problem of quality in human services: in elementary school, psychiatric care, and the health and social care of children, the elderly, and the intellectually disabled. Geriatric nursing home patients are used as a case. These care recipients cannot enforce their legal right to quality service; their quality-effective demand is low. Formal economic analyses often characterize the weak position of the care recipient as an information asymmetry problem. An additional obstacle, however, is the recipient's inability to safeguard her personal interest due to physical, mental, or social incapacities; that is, “limited consumer sovereignty.” Incapacitated individuals cannot enforce quality even when quality information is available. This creates a fundamental incentive problem in the monitoring of quality. They also depend on services that are complex and non-verifiable, making external monitoring difficult. This paper presents a typology of measures to increase the quality pressure facing providers.     

Long memory and fractional integration in the housing price series of London and Paris

This article deals with the analysis of house price indexes from a long-range dependence viewpoint. In particular, it estimates the fractional differencing parameter in the London and Paris house price series recognizing in some cases the potential seasonality and allowing for breaks in the data. Moreover, it analyses the stability of the parameters across the sample period examined. It is concluded that the series are nonstationary but mean reverting in some cases and very persistent in others. Policy implications are derived.     

Comment

How well does competitive theory explain the outcome in experimental markets. The authors examined the results of a large number of classroom trading experiments that used a pit-trading design found in Experiments with Economic Principles, an introductory economics textbook by Bergstrom and Miller. They compared experimental outcomes with predictions of competitive-equilibrium theory and with those of a simple profit-splitting theory. Neither theory was entirely successful in explaining the data, although in the first rounds of trading there was significant profit splitting and, as traders became more experienced, outcomes were closer to those predicted by competitive theory.     

The multi-market analysis of a housing price transmission model

In this article, we examine dynamic relationships among housing prices from four first-tier cities in China from December 2000 to May 2010 and present an equilibrium model of housing price in multi-markets. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenous price series in competing housing markets, our empirical model is able to capture the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships and important short-run dynamics and price structures such as price leadership, price transmission lag and asymmetric price responses. Such multi-market analysis has generalized implications and can easily be applied to analyse the pricing dynamics among other real estate markets in the world. Our major contribution lies in two aspects. First, we employ an Error-Correction Model (ECM) with Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to study the price dynamics in the four largest and key housing markets in China. Second, we uncover a price transmission among these housing markets in China and provide an insightful understanding of price adjustment across markets. The revealed effective price transmission and high correlation among these different markets actually is not a good thing for a stable financial system and for the defence against price bubbles in the housing market.     

Estimating demand elasticities under rationing

Eliminating rationing in the United Kingdom following the Second World War was a concern for policy-makers because of potentially large fluctuations in post-war prices and the impact on unrationed goods. This study shows that in using virtual prices, elasticities can be estimated from a ‘free’ demand system consistent with observed consumer choices. Substitution estimates without accounting for rationing are misleading. In contrast, using virtual prices and estimating a ‘free’ market system yield results similar to those of the pre-war period. Results show that food rationing affected expenditure across unrationed goods. Rationing on other services had little effect on expenditure across unrationed goods.